Why Extreme Results Feel So Convincing
There’s a natural human instinct to be drawn to the extraordinary. If a campaign suddenly doubled your enquiries, you’re more likely to tell a friend about it than recount the weeks where nothing changed. If an experiment went spectacularly well — especially when the odds were long — it feels meaningful in a way that ordinary results never do.
Think about backing a horse. We’re far more likely to mention it when we picked the winner than when we didn’t. And if that winner was a long shot, the story becomes even better. The result may have been rare — but we talk about it as if it proves something.
That instinct is understandable. But it can mislead us if we treat rare outcomes as representative of what normally happens.
In statistical terms, these rare outcomes are called outliers. If you imagine a bell curve — the familiar distribution where most results cluster in the middle — outliers sit in the long tails at either end. One end represents exceptional success. The other represents significant failure. Both are possible. Neither are typical.
Marketing is particularly prone to outlier thinking. We see stories of overnight growth, viral posts, sudden ranking surges, or dramatic traffic spikes. It’s easy to assume that with the right tactic, we can reproduce those results.
But just because something did happen once doesn’t mean it is the most likely outcome.
The Problem with Living in the Tails
Outliers exist at both ends of the curve. On one side sits the fantasy result: explosive visibility, rapid growth, breakthrough performance. On the other sits the worst-case scenario: wasted budget, reputational damage, complete failure.
As humans, we are naturally — and quite rightly — risk averse, especially when the stakes feel serious. We tend to worry about the negative tail. But the positive tail deserves equal caution. Dramatic success stories can be just as distorting as dramatic failures.
In that sense, outlying positive data should be viewed as “for entertainment purposes only.” Interesting. Encouraging, perhaps. But not a solid foundation for decision-making.
The Middle Is Where the Real Work Happens
The real story lives in the middle.
The middle of the bell curve is where most outcomes cluster. It’s where steady improvement happens. It’s where patterns are reliable. It’s where the bulk of real businesses operate — especially sole traders whose capacity is finite and whose growth needs to be proportionate.
In marketing, this grounded perspective matters. It’s closely related to what I explored in Why Chasing SEO Scores Is the Wrong Game. Fixating on exceptional metrics or dramatic improvements can distract from what actually sustains a business: clarity, alignment, and steady, well-matched enquiries.
The work is rarely about dramatic spikes. It’s about small, thoughtful improvements made consistently over time.
That may not make for exciting stories. But it does make for sustainable growth.
Viewing opportunity through the grounded lens of likelihood — rather than excitement or fear — is not timid. It is disciplined. It is realistic. And for most sole traders, it is the sustainable path forward.